Insufficient Monitoring and Modeling of Climate Processes and Control Paths
We have limited capacity to predict key disruptive events, such as solar flares that threaten power grids and communications, alongside an incomplete understanding of natural processes (atmospheric, ocean, etc.) that underpin climate models. We need better monitoring tools for characterizing phenomena that impact climate dynamics, such as aerosol-cloud interactions, and assessing potential interventions such as marine cloud brightening. These issues underscore the need for enhanced observational tools and more sophisticated models of climate processes.
Foundational Capabilities (9)
Innovate and deploy more efficient and robust systems for deep ocean exploration, enabling comprehensive study of deep-sea environments and their unique biology.
Retrofit existing vessels and aircraft with advanced sensors to systematically measure aerosol–cloud interactions in situ, improving our understanding and models.
Deploy networks of in-situ and remote sensors to monitor emissions across key ecosystems like thawing permafrost, peatlands, and tropical forests.
Global ARGO-like sensors for deep ocean currents. We have relatively sparse ocean data compared to atmospheric data. Initiatives like Argo floats ( ~4,000 drifting sensors) have collected over two million ocean profiles of temperature and salinity, providing a crucial 3D view of the oceans.
Expanding such efforts (more floats, deeper measurements, biogeochemical sensors) and releasing the data in unified formats could enable AI to model ocean currents, carbon uptake, and climate patterns like El Niño with greater skill. A gap remains in high-resolution, full-depth ocean data that AI models could exploit for improved climate forecasts.
Explore the concept of using satellite constellations (like Starlink) to perform atmospheric tomography, thereby building a 3D picture of atmospheric dynamics.
Develop dynamic models that incorporate microbial, hydrological, and climate-driven processes to better capture methane/N₂O feedback loops.
Enhance predictive models for solar flares using advanced data analytics and observation techniques to better forecast solar activity.
Note: NASA spends $0.8 bn/yr on heliophysics.
Develop improved sensor technologies for airborne particulates, e.g., hyperspectral and lidar-based remote sensing for aerosol particle size, type, and radiative forcing potential